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    題名: Mortality Dependence and Longevity Bond Pricing: A Dynamic Factor Copula Mortality Model with the GAS Structure
    作者: Chen, Hua
    MacMinn, Richard D.
    Sun, Tao
    貢獻者: 風險與保險研究中心
    關鍵詞: Mortality
    日期: 2017-04
    上傳時間: 2017-08-30 15:28:39 (UTC+8)
    摘要: Modeling mortality dependence for multiple populations has significant implications for mortality/longevity risk management. A natural way to assess multivariate dependence is to use copula models. The application of copula models in the multipopulation mortality analysis, however, is still in its infancy. In this article, we present a dynamic multipopulation mortality model based on a two-factor copula and capture the time-varying dependence using the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) framework. Our model is simple and flexible in terms of model specification and is widely applicable to high dimension data. Using the Swiss Re Kortis longevity trend bond as an example, we use our model to estimate the probability distribution of principal reduction and some risk measures such as probability of first loss, conditional expected loss, and expected loss. Due to the similarity in the structure and design of CAT bonds and mortality/longevity bonds, we borrow CAT bond pricing techniques for mortality/longevity bond pricing. We find that our pricing model generates par spreads that are close to the actual spreads of previously issued mortality/longevity bonds.
    關聯: Journal of Risk and Insurance, Special Edition, Vol. 84, 393-415
    資料類型: article
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jori.12214
    顯示於類別:[風險管理與保險學系 ] 期刊論文

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