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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 統計學系 > 期刊論文 >  Item 140.119/61617
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    題名: 2010年各國人口普查制度之研究
    作者: 顏貝珊;余清祥
    Yen,Bei-Shan;Yue, Jack C.
    貢獻者: 統計系
    關鍵詞: 人口普查;登記式普查;美國社區調查;常住人口;戶籍人口
    Population and Housing Census;Registered-Based Census;American Community Census;Registered Population;Permanent Resident
    日期: 2010.06
    上傳時間: 2013-11-11 17:48:50 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 人口普查的主旨在於瞭解一個國家或地區的人口及其相關特性,國家的政策制訂及人力規劃需仰賴正確的調查結果。但隨著社會變遷等諸多因素,即使增加費用也無法提高普查的完訪率,資料的品質也因民眾配合意願而降低。雖然許多國家仍採傳統問卷式普查,為提高資料品質與降低調查成本等因素,部份國家積極發展新的普查方法,預計在2010 年人口普查正式實施。 本研究整理新的普查方法,包括登記式普查、登記式普查結合抽樣調查、滾動式抽樣調查等方法。其中行政院計畫預計在 2010 年以登記式普查結合抽樣調查取代傳統的人口普查,效法新加坡、北歐四國與荷蘭的作法,整合公務登記系統以取得普查短表資料,以抽樣調查代替國外長表問卷的設計,獲得較為詳細的教育、生育、居家老人照護等社經議題之統計資料。瞭解登記式普查等新調查方法,有助於 2010 年台灣普查的進行,尤其是人口普查的目標是常住人口或戶籍人口的基本問題。 另外,本研究也將整理美國與法國即將採用的調查方法,包括美國社區調查(American Community Survey)的設計與抽樣方法,用於普查以取代長表問卷的可能,並研究抽樣調查蒐集人口的限制,比較普查及調查蒐集資料的優缺點。
    The objective of the population and housing census is to collect the demographic information of a nation or an area which is used for government planning and policy making. However, the traditional census in recent years is facing new challenges, such as the increase in survey cost, non-response rate, and data demand. Although most countries still use the traditional census method for 2010 census, many are seeking new methods to improve the quality of census data and to reduce the survey cost. The 2010 Taiwan Census will no longer use the traditional method and use registered-based census with sampling survey instead. It will integrate the official registry system to acquire the basic demographic characteristics, and collect more detailed information on the social and economic topics, including personal information about education, fertility, and elder care by using sampling methods. The new method is adapting the experiences from Singapore, Netherland, and the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden). However, the new method should be evaluated carefully since Taiwan is well-known for having some unique population characteristics. Thus, we will evaluate the new census methods from other countries and see if they are suitable to use in Taiwan. We shall first introduce and compare the traditional and new methods in conducting population census.. The new methods include Registered-Based Census, Registered-Based Census with Sampling Survey, and the Rolling Census. For the second half of paper, we will further examine the survey methods that will be used for the U.S. and French census, including the design concept and the sampling method executed by the American Community Survey (ACS) to replace the long-form questionnaire for the 2010 U.S. Census. In addition, we will discuss the restrictions of using sampling survey to collect data, and compare the traditional census to new census methods. Finally, we will use examples to demonstrate the problems of using registered-based population to estimate the De Jure (or permanent resident) population in 2010 Taiwan Census.
    關聯: 人口學刊, 40, 203-229
    資料類型: article
    顯示於類別:[統計學系] 期刊論文

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